لمصر رئيس جديد. ولديها تحديات جليلة سواء امنيه (فى الامن الوطنى والامن القومى) او اقتصاديه او تتعلق بالطاقة او التنمية بصفه عامة. غير واضح حتى الآن كيف ستتحرك إدارة الرئيس السيسي قدما فى ملفات عديدة. لكن هناك ملاحظات ثلاثة مهمة قد تساعد فى فهم كيف ستواجه هذه الإدارة الجديدة لمواجهة هذه التحديات
اولا- الاصوات التى حصل عليها السيسي فى انتخابات ٢٠١٤ تبلغ تقريبا مجموع الأصوات التى حصل عليها المرشحين المتنافسين فى الجولة الثانية من انتخابات ٢٠١٢. معنى هذا أن لدى السيسي فرصة افضل من تحقيق اجماع وطنى حول سياساته من الرئيس مرسي خلال فترة إدارته
ثانيا- حالة سيادة القانون فى مصر الآن هى افضل مما كانت عليه من عامين. حصار المحكمة الدستورية العليا وعزل النائب العام وتحصين قرارات من رقابة القضاء هى مجرد امثلة لاهدار اوليات سيادة القانون خلال ادارة الرئيس مرسي. وجود القاضى عدلى منصور -رئيس المحكمة الدستورية العليا- كرئيس مؤقت لمصر خلال الفترة الانتقالية اعاد لسيادة القانون بعضا من قيمتها لكن مازال هناك الكثير مما ينبغى فعله فى هذا الصدد
ثالثا- يبدو ان المحكمة الدستورة العليا مقبلة على ممارسة دور فعال فى منظومة حكم مصر اكثر من قبل. لم يعد القاضى عدلى منصور رئيسا مؤقتا لكنه مازال هو رئيس اعلى محكمة فى مصر. خطابه الوداعى الذى القاه يوم إعلان نتيجة الإنتخابات الرئاسية بحاجة الى المزيد من التحليل والدراسة. هديته الى الرئيس السيسي خلال مراسم تسليم السلطة كانت نسخة من دستور مصر الذى -بحسب كلامه-
يمثل القانون الاسمى في البلاد ويرسى القواعد والأصول التى يقوم عليها نظام الحكم- ومن جانبى فإننى ساسهر من موقعى الذى عدت اليه اليوم -كرئيس للمحكمة الدستورية العليا- على احترامه وتطبيق أحكامه
Egyptians have a new president: Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. He was former president Hosni Mubarak's choice as the Director of Military Intelligence (2010-2012). Then, he was former president Muhamed Mursi's choice as the Minister of Defense (2012-2013). Later on, he was former president Adli Mansour's choice as the First Deputy Prime Minister beside being the Minister of Defense (2013-2014). Finally, after resigning from his positions, he ran for the presidency, won a three-day elections and was sworn into office on 8 June 2014.
The country faces many challenges in terms of security (national and regional), the economy, energy and development in general. It is not clear yet how president El-Sisi's administration will move forward. But, it seems that the following three observations might help understand how this new administration will face these challenges.
First, the votes El-Sisi got in 2014 are close the votes that the two candidates got combined in 2012. He is more likely to achieve consensus on his policies than Mursi.
From 53.5 m registered voters, 25.5 m participated in the 2014 elections.
23.4 m voted for El-Sisi,
740,304 (less than a million) voted to his opponent
1.03 are invalid votes
(Source: https://www.elections.eg/presidential-elections-2014-results)
compare this to the 2012 presidential elections
In the first round:
from 50.4 m registered voters, 23.2 m participated
5.7 m voted for Mursi,
5.5 m voted for his opponent Ahmed Shafik
(source: http://pres2012.elections.eg/index.php/round1-results)
In the second round:
13.2 m voted for Mursi,
12.3 m voted for his opponent Shafik
(source: http://pres2012.elections.eg/index.php/round2-results)
Second, the state of the "rule of law" in Egypt is not as weak as it was two years ago. The siege of the Supreme Constitutional Court, the dismissal of the Public Prosecutor, and the immunization of governmental decisions from judicial review were some aspects of this weakness during Mursi's administration. Having Justice Adly Mansour, the head of the highest court, as the interim president during the last year, restored some respect to the rule of law. Yet, there are many steps that have to be taken in this regard to restore confidence in the institutions upholding the rule of law.
Third, the Supreme Constitutional Court seems more willing to actively participate in the dynamics of governance than before. Justice Adly Mansour is not the interim president any more, but he is still the head of the highest court in Egypt as he clarified in his farewell speech. His gift to President El-Sisi was a copy of the 2014 Constitution that is "the highest law of the land that sets the rules upon which the system of governance is designed." "From my side, as I returned today to my position as the head of Supreme Constitutional Court, I will observe the respect to the Constitution and the enforcement of its rules."
